Using NGP for finishing time prediction
i would like to use NGP for predicting my finishing time on a curvy or uphill race. i would need to know the distance as well as elevation gain and loss.
in a PoC i calculated performance km's with the above input variables from an internet resource. then i took the effective NGP from that race and calculated the predicted finishing time (FT). to my surprise it is pretty accurate, despite all the limitations of inaccuracy in gps tracking, calculating performace km's and NGP. the sample size is small but see below:
FT: 146’ (calculated with NGP: 148’), variation +/- 1.4%
FT: 88’ (calculated with NGP: 91’), variation +/- 3.4%
FT: 42’ (calculated with NGP: 44’), variation +/- 4.8%
the characteristics of the races:
1) 1033m up and 206m down (14.3k, 19.9 pk)
2) 370m up and 313 down (12.9km 14.4pk)
3) 418m up and 1m down (4.2k, 6.7pk)
i'm wondering how that applies to your races / data ? let me know in the comments below and show TPdevs how we could improve predicting races and/or training runs. thanks in advance for your help!